The New Orleans Saints ride a two-game losing streak into Arrowhead Stadium as they take on a Kansas City Chiefs team running thin on passing-game options.
My Saints vs. Chiefs predictions are targeting Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes despite K.C. losing WRs Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown to injury. No. 15 makes everyone around him better, and he’s never more dangerous than when Kansas City is knocking on the door of the end zone.
See why I’m betting on Mahomes to post a pair of passing touchdowns with my NFL picks for tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup.
Saints vs Chiefs MNF prediction
Who will win Monday Night Football?
Kansas City is a tough place to play regardless. But put the well-oiled KC faithful in Arrowhead for a primetime game and it’s clear why this is one of the rare home fields actually worth something to the spread. What’s more, this trip to Kansas City is New Orleans’ first outdoor game of the season and just the second time the Saints have played in an open-air venue with natural grass in the past 16 games going back to last season.
The Chiefs offense is missing pieces, but this is an elite defense bringing a ton of pressure from everywhere, which doesn’t bode well for a Saints offensive line riddled with injuries. The pass protections sits 24th in pass block win rate at ESPN, leaving QB Derek Carr ripe for sacks and miscues.
It may not be pretty, but the Chiefs win this one at home in Week 5.
My best betPatrick Mahomes Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Most weeks, Patrick Mahomes would be a shoo-in to sling it for two or more touchdowns. However, the state of the Kansas City Chiefs’ receivers room, compounded by a stingy Saints defense, has swung the market on Mahomes’ TD passes the other way.
As mentioned, Mahomes is missing his top target in 2024 with Rice going down with a knee injury last Sunday. The Chiefs’ downfield options were already dicey with Brown starting the season on the IR. Add in a slow start for tight end Travis Kelce, and the K.C. passing attack is not what it used to be.
The Chiefs sit middle of the pack in terms of passing production, ranked 17th in EPA per dropback, and are playing a very conservative approach with Mahomes near the bottom in air yards per attempt with six passing touchdowns through the first four weeks.
Mahomes is relying on his targets to pick up yards after the catch, averaging the third-highest YAC (6.6) in the NFL. That could work well versus the New Orleans Saints, who have allowed the fifth-most YAC so far this season and come into Week 5 with a big hole in the second level of the defense.
The Saints will be without former Chief LB Willie Gay as well as strong coverage LB Nephi Sewell (IR) in Week 5. Also possibly sidelined for Monday is top coverage LB Pete Werner, who showed up on the injury report (hamstring) this weekend.
Not only does that set up well for Kelce to have a breakout game, but due to the injury to RB1 Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City is relying on dual-threat running backs Kareem Hunt and Samaje Perine going forward. That means more passing options for Mahomes, especially inside the red zone.
Player projections for Week 5 range from 1.4 touchdowns to more than 1.8 for Mahomes and the bulk sit north of the 1.5 TD total. My number is just shy of 1.7 touchdown throws on Monday night, given the bigger spread (Chiefs -5.5) and gaps in the NOLA linebacker corps.
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Saints vs Chiefs MNF same-game parlay
Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 passing touchdownsTravis Kelce anytime touchdownChiefs moneyline
+290 at FanDuel
Mahomes puts the Chiefs on his shoulders and slices up the Saints’ second level for some catch-and-run scoring strikes.
Given the injuries at linebacker and Kelce’s emergence after a slow start, I like him to haul down a touchdown in primetime.
The Chiefs could be in for a fight, but I like them to come away with the outright win at home Monday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Saints vs Chiefs odds
Saints vs Chiefs live odds
Saints vs Chiefs opening odds
- Spread: New Orleans +5 | Kansas City -5
- Moneyline: New Orleans +195 | Kansas City -227
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 | Under 43.5
Saints vs Chiefs spread and Over/Under analysis
• Kansas City opened as a 5.5-point home favorite and got to as low as -5 before respected money bought up K.C. below the key number. The line jumped as high as Chiefs -6.5 before buyback on the road underdog knocked this spread back to K.C. -5.5.
• The Over/Under hit the board at 42.5 O/U and has climbed to 43.5 points with money showing on the Over this week.
• Covers Consensus shows 58% of spread picks on New Orleans with 70% of total picks on the Over for Monday Night Football.
